Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination experiences and perceptions among health workers during the pandemic in Ebonyi state, Nigeria: An analytical cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 continues to be a disease of global public health importance and requires long-term management and control. Health workers' (previous) experiences and perceptions regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-19 vaccination/vaccination process will influence not only their subsequent use of control measures but also public experiences/perceptions. We explored the COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination and the vaccination process experiences and perceptions, and their predictors, among the health workers in Ebonyi state, Nigeria. METHODS: We conducted an online-offline analytical cross-sectional survey between March 12 and May 9, 2022 among all categories of health workers (clinical/non-clinical, public/private) working/living in Ebonyi state who consented to participate and were selected by convenience/snowballing techniques. A structured electronic questionnaire was used to collect data: self-administered via WhatsApp and interviewer-administered via KoBoCollect for participants who did not have WhatsApp. Data was analysed using descriptive statistics and bivariate/multivariate generalized linear models. RESULTS: Of the 1276 health workers surveyed: 55.8% had strong COVID-19 experience and perception, 80.7% had good COVID-19 vaccination expectation and perception, and 87.7% had positive COVID-19 vaccination process experience and perception. The most important predictors of the extent and level of COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination and the vaccination process experiences and perceptions were level of place of work (primary-secondary/tertiary), level of attitude towards COVID-19 (vaccination), and level of knowledge about COVID-19. Another important predictor was place of work (public/private). CONCLUSIONS: The evidence indicate the factors that should guide subsequent policy actions in the strategies to enhance the COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccination and the vaccination process experiences and perceptions of health workers (and their use of control measures) in Ebonyi state, Nigeria, and other similar contexts. It also indicate factors to be considered by future policy actions regarding similar diseases.

Factors influencing uptake of protective behaviours by healthcare workers in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: A theory-based mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Hospital infection control policies protect patients and healthcare workers (HCWs) and limit the spread of pathogens, but adherence to COVID-19 guidance varies. We examined hospital HCWs' enactment of social distancing and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during the COVID-19 pandemic, factors influencing these behaviours, and acceptability and feasibility of strategies to increase social distancing. METHODS: An online, cross-sectional survey (n = 86) and semi-structured interviews (n = 22) with HCWs in two English hospitals during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (May-December 2020). The Capability, Opportunity, Motivation (COM-B) model of behaviour change underpinned survey and topic guide questions. Spearman Rho correlations examined associations between COM-B domains and behaviours. Interviews were analysed using inductive and deductive thematic analysis. Potential strategies to improve social distancing were selected using the Behaviour Change Wheel and discussed in a stakeholder workshop (n = 8 participants). RESULTS: Social distancing enactment was low, with 85% of participants reporting very frequently or always being in close contact with others in communal areas. PPE use was high (88% very frequently or always using PPE in typical working day). Social distancing was associated with Physical Opportunity (e.g., size of physical space), Psychological Capability (e.g., clarity of guidance), and Social Opportunity (e.g., support from managers). Use of PPE was associated with Psychological Capability (e.g., training), Physical Opportunity (e.g., availability), Social Opportunity (e.g., impact on interactions with patients), and Reflective Motivation (e.g., beliefs that PPE is effective). Local champions and team competition were viewed as feasible strategies to improve social distancing. CONCLUSIONS: It is valuable to understand and compare the drivers of individual protective behaviours; when faced with the same level of perceived threat, PPE use was high whereas social distancing was rarely enacted. Identified influences represent targets for intervention strategies in response to future infectious disease outbreaks.

Exploring factors affecting the unsafe behavior of health care workers' in using respiratory masks during COVID-19 pandemic in Iran: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The use of respiratory masks has been one of the most important measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 among health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, correct and safe use of breathing masks is vital. The purpose of this study was to exploring factors affecting the unsafe behavior of health care workers' in using respiratory masks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran. METHODS: This study was carried out using the conventional qualitative content analysis. Participants were the number of 26 health care workers selected by purposive sampling method. Data collection was conducted through in-depth semi-structured interviews. Data analysis was done using the content analysis approach of Graneheim and Lundman. This study aligns with the Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research (COREQ) checklist and was conducted between December 2021 and April 2022. RESULTS: The factors affecting the unsafe behavior of health care workers while using respiratory masks were divided into 3 main categories and 8 sub-categories. Categories included discomfort and pain (four sub-categories of headache and dizziness, skin discomfort, respiratory discomfort, feeling hot and thirsty), negative effect on performance (four sub-categories of effect on physical function, effect on cognitive function, system function vision, and hearing), and a negative effect on the mental state (two subcategories of anxiety and depression). CONCLUSION: The findings can help identify and analyze possible scenarios to reduce unsafe behaviors at the time of using breathing masks. The necessary therapeutic and preventive interventions regarding the complications of using masks, as well as planning to train personnel for the correct use of masks with minimal health effects are suggested.

Health systems challenges, mitigation strategies and adaptations to maintain essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic: learnings from the six geopolitical regions in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic control strategies disrupted the smooth delivery of essential health services (EHS) globally. Limited evidence exists on the health systems lens approach to analyzing the challenges encountered in maintaining EHS during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify the health system challenges encountered and document the mitigation strategies and adaptations made across geopolitical zones (GPZs) in Nigeria. METHODS: The national qualitative survey of key actors across the six GPZs in Nigeria involved ten states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) which were selected based on resilience, COVID-19 burden and security considerations. A pre-tested key informant guide was used to collect data on service utilization, changes in service utilization, reasons for changes in primary health centres' (PHCs) service volumes, challenges experienced by health facilities in maintaining EHS, mitigation strategies implemented and adaptations to service delivery. Emerging sub-themes were categorized under the appropriate pillars of the health system. RESULTS: A total of 22 respondents were interviewed. The challenges experienced in maintaining EHS cut across the pillars of the health systems including: Human resources shortage, shortages in the supply of personal protective equipments, fear of contracting COVID-19 among health workers misconception, ignorance, socio-cultural issues, lockdown/transportation and lack of equipment/waiting area (. The mitigation strategies included improved political will to fund health service projects, leading to improved accessibility, affordability, and supply of consumables. The health workforce was motivated by employing, redeploying, training, and incentivizing. Service delivery was reorganized by rescheduling appointments and prioritizing some EHS such as maternal and childcare. Sustainable systems adaptations included IPC and telehealth infrastructure, training and capacity building, virtual meetings and community groups set up for sensitization and engagement. CONCLUSION: The mitigation strategies and adaptations implemented were important contributors to EHS recovery especially in the high resilience LGAs and have implications for future epidemic preparedness plans.

How did we protect children against COVID-19 in Iran? Prevalence of COVID-19 and vaccination in the socio-economic context of COVID-19 epidemic.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic posed significant risks to children worldwide. This study aimed to assess the COVID-19 protection status of children and explored the relationship between household socio-economic status and COVID-19 morbidity and preventive measures, including vaccination and mask-wearing, in two cities in Iran. METHOD: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted from July to October 2022 among 7 to 18-year-old children and their families in Tehran and Karaj. A total of 3,022 samples were selected using stratified multistage cluster sampling. Data were collected through interviews with children and adults, using questionnaires and was analyzed with Stata software version 14. RESULTS: The analysis focused on 2,878 children with a median age of 12. Over half (54%) reported that the pandemic negatively affected their family's financial status, with 45% describing its impact on children's needs as negative or very negative. Just under 50% of respondents consistently wore masks during the study period, and around 54% had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. Reasons for not getting vaccinated included concerns about side effects, ineligibility for the target age group, and overcrowding at vaccination sites. The odds of not getting vaccinated were significantly lower for children aged 15-18, with boys more likely to refuse vaccination than girls. CONCLUSION: The financial impact of the pandemic in Iran affected families' ability to meet their children's needs. Moreover, low vaccination acceptance rates increased children's vulnerability to health problems and contributed to COVID-19 infections. Efforts should be made to increase vaccination acceptance, particularly among immigrant populations.

Large environmental changes reduce valence-dependent belief updating.

When updating beliefs, humans tend to integrate more desirable information than undesirable information. In stable environments (low uncertainty and high predictability), this asymmetry favors motivation towards action and perceived self-efficacy. However, in changing environments (high uncertainty and low predictability), this process can lead to risk underestimation and increase unwanted costs. Here, we examine how people (n = 388) integrate threatening information during an abrupt environmental change (mandatory quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic). Given that anxiety levels are associated with the magnitude of the updating belief asymmetry; we explore its relationship during this particular context. We report a significant reduction in asymmetrical belief updating during a large environmental change as individuals integrated desirable and undesirable information to the same extent. Moreover, this result was supported by computational modeling of the belief update task. However, we found that the reduction in asymmetrical belief updating was not homogeneous among people with different levels of Trait-anxiety. Individuals with higher levels of Trait-anxiety maintained a valence-dependent updating, as it occurs in stable environments. On the other hand, updating behavior was not associated with acute anxiety (State-Anxiety), health concerns (Health-Anxiety), or having positive expectations (Trait-Optimism). These results suggest that highly uncertain environments can generate adaptive changes in information integration. At the same time, it reveals the vulnerabilities of individuals with higher levels of anxiety to adapt the way they learn.

Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: More than 767 million coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) cases and 6.9 million deaths with COVID-19 have been recorded as of August 2023. Several public health and social measures were implemented in schools to contain the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and prevent onward transmission. We built upon methods from a previous Cochrane review to capture current empirical evidence relating to the effectiveness of school measures to limit SARS-CoV-2 transmission. OBJECTIVES: To provide an updated assessment of the evidence on the effectiveness of measures implemented in the school setting to keep schools open safely during the COVID-19 pandemic. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register, Educational Resources Information Center, World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease database, and the US Department of Veterans Affairs Evidence Synthesis Program COVID-19 Evidence Reviews on 18 February 2022. SELECTION CRITERIA: Eligible studies focused on measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, among students (aged 4 to 18 years) or individuals relating to the school, or both. We categorized studies that reported quantitative measures of intervention effectiveness, and studies that assessed the performance of surveillance measures as either 'main' or 'supporting' studies based on design and approach to handling key confounders. We were interested in transmission-related outcomes and intended or unintended consequences. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors screened titles, abstracts and full texts. We extracted minimal data for supporting studies. For main studies, one review author extracted comprehensive data and assessed risk of bias, which a second author checked. We narratively synthesized findings for each intervention-comparator-outcome category (body of evidence). Two review authors assessed certainty of evidence. MAIN RESULTS: The 15 main studies consisted of measures to reduce contacts (4 studies), make contacts safer (7 studies), surveillance and response measures (6 studies; 1 assessed transmission outcomes, 5 assessed performance of surveillance measures), and multicomponent measures (1 study). These main studies assessed outcomes in the school population (12), general population (2), and adults living with a school-attending child (1). Settings included K-12 (kindergarten to grade 12; 9 studies), secondary (3 studies), and K-8 (kindergarten to grade 8; 1 study) schools. Two studies did not clearly report settings. Studies measured transmission-related outcomes (10), performance of surveillance measures (5), and intended and unintended consequences (4). The 15 main studies were based in the WHO regions of the Americas (12), Europe (2), and Eastern Mediterranean (1). Comparators were more versus less intense measures, single versus multicomponent measures, and measures versus no measures. We organized results into relevant bodies of evidence, or groups of studies relating to the same 'intervention-comparator-outcome' categories. Across all bodies of evidence, certainty of evidence ratings limit our confidence in findings. Where we describe an effect as 'beneficial', the direction of the point estimate of the effect favours the intervention; a 'harmful' effect does not favour the intervention and 'null' shows no effect either way. Measures to reduce contact (4 studies) We grouped studies into 21 bodies of evidence: moderate- (10 bodies), low- (3 bodies), or very low-certainty evidence (8 bodies). The evidence was very low to moderate certainty for beneficial effects of remote versus in-person or hybrid teaching on transmission in the general population. For students and staff, mostly harmful effects were observed when more students participated in remote teaching. Moderate-certainty evidence showed that in the general population there was probably no effect on deaths and a beneficial effect on hospitalizations for remote versus in-person teaching, but no effect for remote versus hybrid teaching. The effects of hybrid teaching, a combination of in-person and remote teaching, were mixed. Very low-certainty evidence showed that there may have been a harmful effect on risk of infection among adults living with a school student for closing playgrounds and cafeterias, a null effect for keeping the same teacher, and a beneficial effect for cancelling extracurricular activities, keeping the same students together and restricting entry for parents and caregivers. Measures to make contact safer (7 studies) We grouped studies into eight bodies of evidence: moderate- (5 bodies), and low-certainty evidence (3 bodies). Low-certainty evidence showed that there may have been a beneficial effect of mask mandates on transmission-related outcomes. Moderate-certainty evidence showed full mandates were probably more beneficial than partial or no mandates. Evidence of a beneficial effect of physical distancing on risk of infection among staff and students was mixed. Moderate-certainty evidence showed that ventilation measures probably reduce cases among staff and students. One study (very low-certainty evidence) found that there may be a beneficial effect of not sharing supplies and increasing desk space on risk of infection for adults living with a school student, but showed there may be a harmful effect of desk shields. Surveillance and response measures (6 studies) We grouped studies into seven bodies of evidence: moderate- (3 bodies), low- (1 body), and very low-certainty evidence (3 bodies). Daily testing strategies to replace or reduce quarantine probably helped to reduce missed school days and decrease the proportion of asymptomatic school contacts testing positive (moderate-certainty evidence). For studies that assessed the performance of surveillance measures, the proportion of cases detected by rapid antigen detection testing ranged from 28.6% to 95.8%, positive predictive value ranged from 24.0% to 100.0% (very low-certainty evidence). There was probably no onward transmission from contacts of a positive case (moderate-certainty evidence) and replacing or shortening quarantine with testing may have reduced missed school days (low-certainty evidence). Multicomponent measures (1 study) Combining multiple measures may have led to a reduction in risk of infection among adults living with a student (very low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: A range of measures can have a beneficial effect on transmission-related outcomes, healthcare utilization and school attendance. We rated the current findings at a higher level of certainty than the original review. Further high-quality research into school measures to control SARS-CoV-2 in a wider variety of contexts is needed to develop a more evidence-based understanding of how to keep schools open safely during COVID-19 or a similar public health emergency.

Effectiveness of an eHealth intervention for reducing psychological distress and increasing COVID-19 knowledge and protective behaviors among racialized sexual and gender minority adults: A quasi-experimental study (#SafeHandsSafeHearts).

PURPOSE: Sexual and gender minority and racialized populations experienced heightened vulnerability during the Covid-19 pandemic. Marginalization due to structural homophobia, transphobia and racism, and resulting adverse social determinants of health that contribute to health disparities among these populations, were exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and public health measures to control it. We developed and tested a tailored online intervention (#SafeHandsSafeHearts) to support racialized lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and other persons outside of heteronormative and cisgender identities (LGBTQ+) in Toronto, Canada during the pandemic. METHODS: We used a quasi-experimental pre-test post-test design to evaluate the effectiveness of a 3-session, peer-delivered eHealth intervention in reducing psychological distress and increasing Covid-19 knowledge and protective behaviors. Individuals ≥18-years-old, resident in Toronto, and self-identified as sexual or gender minority were recruited online. Depressive and anxiety symptoms, and Covid-19 knowledge and protective behaviors were assessed at baseline, 2-weeks postintervention, and 2-months follow-up. We used generalized estimating equations and zero-truncated Poisson models to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention on the four primary outcomes. RESULTS: From March to November 2021, 202 participants (median age, 27 years [Interquartile range: 23-32]) were enrolled in #SafeHandsSafeHearts. Over half (54.5%, n = 110) identified as cisgender lesbian or bisexual women or women who have sex with women, 26.2% (n = 53) cisgender gay or bisexual men or men who have sex with men, and 19.3% (n = 39) transgender or nonbinary individuals. The majority (75.7%, n = 143) were Black and other racialized individuals. The intervention led to statistically significant reductions in the prevalence of clinically significant depressive (25.4% reduction, p < .01) and anxiety symptoms (16.6% reduction, p < .05), and increases in Covid-19 protective behaviors (4.9% increase, p < .05), from baseline to postintervention. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated the effectiveness of a brief, peer-delivered eHealth intervention for racialized LGBTQ+ communities in reducing psychological distress and increasing protective behaviors amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Implementation through community-based organizations by trained peer counselors supports feasibility, acceptability, and the importance of engaging racialized LGBTQ+ communities in pandemic response preparedness. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT04870723.

Difference in Rumor Dissemination and Debunking Before and After the Relaxation of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Measures in China: Infodemiology Study.

BACKGROUND: The information epidemic emerged along with the COVID-19 pandemic. While controlling the spread of COVID-19, the secondary harm of epidemic rumors to social order cannot be ignored. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper was to understand the characteristics of rumor dissemination before and after the pandemic and the corresponding rumor management and debunking mechanisms. This study aimed to provide a theoretical basis and effective methods for relevant departments to establish a sound mechanism for managing network rumors related to public health emergencies such as COVID-19. METHODS: This study collected data sets of epidemic rumors before and after the relaxation of the epidemic prevention and control measures, focusing on large-scale network rumors. Starting from 3 dimensions of rumor content construction, rumor propagation, and rumor-refuting response, the epidemic rumors were subdivided into 7 categories, namely, involved subjects, communication content, emotional expression, communication channels, communication forms, rumor-refuting subjects, and verification sources. Based on this framework, content coding and statistical analysis of epidemic rumors were carried out. RESULTS: The study found that the rumor information was primarily directed at a clear target audience. The main themes of rumor dissemination were related to the public's immediate interests in the COVID-19 field, with significant differences in emotional expression and mostly negative emotions. Rumors mostly spread through social media interactions, community dissemination, and circle dissemination, with text content as the main form, but they lack factual evidence. The preferences of debunking subjects showed differences, and the frequent occurrence of rumors reflected the unsmooth channels of debunking. The χ2 test of data before and after the pandemic showed that the P value was less than .05, indicating that the difference in rumor content before and after the pandemic had statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: This study's results showed that the themes of rumors during the pandemic are closely related to the immediate interests of the public, and the emotions of the public accelerate the spread of these rumors, which are mostly disseminated through social networks. Therefore, to more effectively prevent and control the spread of rumors during the pandemic and to enhance the capability to respond to public health crises, relevant authorities should strengthen communication with the public, conduct emotional risk assessments, and establish a joint mechanism for debunking rumors.

Transmission dynamics, complications and mitigation strategies of the current mpox outbreak: A comprehensive review with bibliometric study.

As the mankind counters the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), it simultaneously witnesses the emergence of mpox virus (MPXV) that signals at global spread and could potentially lead to another pandemic. Although MPXV has existed for more than 50 years now with most of the human cases being reported from the endemic West and Central African regions, the disease is recently being reported in non-endemic regions too that affect more than 50 countries. Controlling the spread of MPXV is important due to its potential danger of a global spread, causing severe morbidity and mortality. The article highlights the transmission dynamics, zoonosis potential, complication and mitigation strategies for MPXV infection, and concludes with suggested 'one health' approach for better management, control and prevention. Bibliometric analyses of the data extend the understanding and provide leads on the research trends, the global spread, and the need to revamp the critical research and healthcare interventions. Globally published mpox-related literature does not align well with endemic areas/regions of occurrence which should ideally have been the scenario. Such demographic and geographic gaps between the location of the research work and the endemic epicentres of the disease need to be bridged for greater and effective translation of the research outputs to pubic healthcare systems, it is suggested.

"We might not have been in hospital, but we were frontline workers in the community": a qualitative study exploring unmet need and local community-based responses for marginalised groups in Greater Manchester during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The response to the COVID-19 pandemic saw a significant increase in demand for the voluntary, community, faith and social enterprise (VCFSE) sector to provide support to local communities. In Greater Manchester (GM), the VCFSE sector and informal networks provided health and wellbeing support in multiple ways, culminating in its crucial supportive role in the provision of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout across the GM city region. However, the support provided by the VCFSE sector during the pandemic remains under-recognised. The aims of the study were to: understand the views and experiences of marginalised communities in GM during the COVID-19 pandemic; explore how community engagement initiatives played a role during the pandemic and vaccine rollout; assess what can be learnt from the work of key stakeholders (community members, VCFSEs, health-system stakeholders) for future health research and service delivery. METHODS: The co-designed study utilised a participatory approach throughout and was co-produced with a Community Research Advisory Group (CRAG). Focus groups and semi-structured interviews were conducted remotely between September-November 2021, with 35 participants from local marginalised communities, health and care system stakeholders and VCFSE representatives. Thematic framework analysis was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: Local communities in GM were not supported sufficiently by mainstream services during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in increased pressure onto the VCFSE sector to respond to local communities' need. Community-based approaches were deemed crucial to the success of the vaccination drive and in providing support to local communities more generally during the pandemic, whereby such approaches were in a unique position to reach members of diverse communities to boost uptake of the vaccine. Despite this, the support delivered by the VCFSE sector remains under-recognised and under-valued by the health system and decision-makers. CONCLUSIONS: A number of challenges associated with collaborative working were experienced by the VSCE sector and health system in delivering the vaccination programme in partnership with the VCFSE sector. There is a need to create a broader, more inclusive health system which allows and promotes inter-sectoral working. Flexibility and adaptability in ongoing and future service delivery should be championed for greater cross-sector working.

Markovian Approach for Exploring Competitive Diseases with Heterogeneity-Evidence from COVID-19 and Influenza in China.

Due to the complex interactions between multiple infectious diseases, the spreading of diseases in human bodies can vary when people are exposed to multiple sources of infection at the same time. Typically, there is heterogeneity in individuals' responses to diseases, and the transmission routes of different diseases also vary. Therefore, this paper proposes an SIS disease spreading model with individual heterogeneity and transmission route heterogeneity under the simultaneous action of two competitive infectious diseases. We derive the theoretical epidemic spreading threshold using quenched mean-field theory and perform numerical analysis under the Markovian method. Numerical results confirm the reliability of the theoretical threshold and show the inhibitory effect of the proportion of fully competitive individuals on epidemic spreading. The results also show that the diversity of disease transmission routes promotes disease spreading, and this effect gradually weakens when the epidemic spreading rate is high enough. Finally, we find a negative correlation between the theoretical spreading threshold and the average degree of the network. We demonstrate the practical application of the model by comparing simulation outputs to temporal trends of two competitive infectious diseases, COVID-19 and seasonal influenza in China.

Chapitre 2. Le télétravail et la prévention des risques professionnels.

The Covid-19 pandemic has spurred the development of telecommuting in many companies, which are now tending to make it a permanent fixture for activities that lend themselves to it. Despite its advantages, however, telecommuting does not exclude all occupational risks when carried out from the employee’s home. Under these conditions, the employer must guarantee the protection of teleworkers’ health by virtue of his safety obligation. But the implementation of a preventive approach is severely challenged by a private space that is beyond the employer’s control. What are these difficulties? How can we proceed? The ANI of November 26, which clarifies the legal framework for telecommuting, offers a few clues, and suggests a form of empowerment for employees and their managers.

Characterizing the antigenic evolution of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 from 2009 to 2023.

The H1N1pdm09 virus has been a persistent threat to public health since the 2009 pandemic. Particularly, since the relaxation of COVID-19 pandemic mitigation measures, the influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 have been concurrently prevalent worldwide. To determine the antigenic evolution pattern of H1N1pdm09 and develop preventive countermeasures, we collected influenza sequence data and immunological data to establish a new antigenic evolution analysis framework. A machine learning model (XGBoost, accuracy = 0.86, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.89) was constructed using epitopes, physicochemical properties, receptor binding sites, and glycosylation sites as features to predict the antigenic similarity relationships between influenza strains. An antigenic correlation network was constructed, and the Markov clustering algorithm was used to identify antigenic clusters. Subsequently, the antigenic evolution pattern of H1N1pdm09 was analyzed at the global and regional scales across three continents. We found that H1N1pdm09 evolved into around five antigenic clusters between 2009 and 2023 and that their antigenic evolution trajectories were characterized by cocirculation of multiple clusters, low-level persistence of former dominant clusters, and local heterogeneity of cluster circulations. Furthermore, compared with the seasonal H1N1 virus, the potential cluster-transition determining sites of H1N1pdm09 were restricted to epitopes Sa and Sb. This study demonstrated the effectiveness of machine learning methods for characterizing antigenic evolution of viruses, developed a specific model to rapidly identify H1N1pdm09 antigenic variants, and elucidated their evolutionary patterns. Our findings may provide valuable support for the implementation of effective surveillance strategies and targeted prevention efforts to mitigate the impact of H1N1pdm09.

Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 based on policy, vaccination, and Omicron data.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel SARS-COV-2 virus poses a great risk to the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, observing and forecasting several important indicators of the epidemic (like new confirmed cases, new cases in intensive care unit, and new deaths for each day) helped prepare the appropriate response (e.g., creating additional intensive care unit beds, and implementing strict interventions). Various predictive models and predictor variables have been used to forecast these indicators. However, the impact of prediction models and predictor variables on forecasting performance has not been systematically well analyzed. Here, we compared the forecasting performance using a linear mixed model in terms of prediction models (mathematical, statistical, and AI/machine learning models) and predictor variables (vaccination rate, stringency index, and Omicron variant rate) for seven selected countries with the highest vaccination rates. We decided on our best models based on the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and analyzed the significance of each predictor. Simple models were preferred. The selection of the best prediction models and the use of Omicron variant rate were considered essential in improving prediction accuracies. For the test data period before Omicron variant emergence, the selection of the best models was the most significant factor in improving prediction accuracy. For the test period after Omicron emergence, Omicron variant rate use was considered essential in deciding forecasting accuracy. For prediction models, ARIMA, lightGBM, and TSGLM generally performed well in both test periods. Linear mixed models with country as a random effect has proven that the choice of prediction models and the use of Omicron data was significant in determining forecasting accuracies for the highly vaccinated countries. Relatively simple models, fit with either prediction model or Omicron data, produced best results in enhancing forecasting accuracies with test data.

Vaccination against COVID-19: the view of Brazilian federal judges.

The aim was to analyze the perception of Brazilian federal judges on the implications of COVID-19 vaccination. A study was carried out with Brazilian federal judges, who received a survey designed with multiple-choice questions on COVID-19 vaccination, covering topics such as its mandatory aspect, the application of coercive measures, hesitation to vaccinate, priority groups, the duties of Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (Anvisa, acronym in Portuguese), the role of the Judiciary branch, and immunity passports. A total of 254 out of 1,300 federal judges from all states responded to the survey. Most respondents have a Bachelor's degree or a specialization (59.1%) and have been judges for more than 10 years (63.8%). A great majority of the judges (87.7%) agree with vaccine mandates for adults and for children and adolescents (66.1%). Over 75% of judges believe that all levels of government can impose sanctions on those who refuse to get vaccinated. The judges trust vaccination 93% of the time, 56.1% reject anti-vaccination movements, and 75.2% believe that Anvisa duties should be respected. The Judiciary branch actions concerning the COVID-19 pandemic are approved by 62.6% of judges, and 88.2% support immunity passports. There is a direct connection among mandatory vaccination, trust in the vaccine, and the adoption of immunity passports. Most federal judges agree with vaccine mandates for children and adults, support the application of sanctions for vaccination refusal, disapprove of anti-vaccination movements, agree with Anvisa's duties, and support judicial intervention in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic.

[Asymmetries between national articulation and the autonomy of state governments in implementing health technologies to fight COVID-19 in Argentina]. / Asimetrías entre la coordinación nacional y la autonomía de los gobiernos estatales en la adopción de tecnologías sanitarias frente a la COVID-19 en Argentina.

Argentina, as other countries, showed several public policies related to the health technologies implemented to fight and treat the COVID-19 pandemic. This study sought to analyze how articulation vs. cooperation and autonomy vs. division of powers between entities occurred in Argentina, exploring asymmetries between several entities in implementing public policies related to health technologies during the pandemic and the influences of other actors. For this, a documentary research was carried out related to 2020-2021 (technical reports published by the World Health Organization, national agencies and scientific societies, laws, court decisions, press, and research and in-depth interviews with members of the Argentine Ministries of Health). The processes and results of decision-making in the Ministries of Health were analyzed, outlining the coverage and orientations of each technology and the political party in power in the province. This study found heterogeneous results and processes between Ministries and disputes within them. It also observed the poor adherence to official guidelines due to technical-political criteria (power relations, social, media, academic, judiciary, and legislative pressure). Some cases showed a strong tension between the government and its opposition over the discussion of technologies. Each province in Argentina has autonomously defined its policies on health technologies for COVID-19, and decision-making in public administration was disorderly, complex, and non-linear during the pandemic.

En pandemia, en Argentina y en otros países se observó variabilidad en las políticas públicas implementadas sobre tecnologías sanitarias para prevención y tratamiento de la COVID-19. El objetivo fue analizar cómo se procesaron en Argentina los movimientos de coordinación vs. cooperación, y de autonomía vs. reparto de autoridad entre entidades, explorando asimetrías entre diferentes entidades en la implementación de políticas públicas sobre tecnologías sanitarias en pandemia y las influencias de otros actores. Se realizó una revisión documental del período 2020-2021 (informes técnicos publicados por la Organización Mundial de la Salud, organismos nacionales y sociedades científicas, leyes, fallos judiciales, prensa, encuestas y entrevistas en profundidad a miembros de los Ministerios de Salud de Argentina). Se indagó sobre procesos y resultados de la toma de decisiones en los Ministerios de Salud, mapeando la cobertura y recomendación de cada tecnología y el partido político provincial gobernante. Hubo heterogeneidad en resultados y procesos entre los Ministerios, y disputas en el interior de los mismos. La adherencia a recomendaciones oficiales fue baja, influyendo distintos criterios técnico-políticos (relaciones de poder, presión social, de los medios, académicos, poder Judicial y Legislativo). En algunos casos se observó una fuerte tensión entre oficialismo y oposición al partido gobernante a partir de la discusión sobre tecnologías. Cada provincia argentina definió sus políticas sobre tecnologías sanitarias para COVID-19 con autonomía, y la toma de decisiones en la administración pública en pandemia fue desordenada, compleja y no lineal.

Na Argentina, assim como em outros países, houve uma variabilidade de políticas públicas relacionadas às tecnologias de saúde implementadas no combate e tratamento da COVID-19 durante a pandemia. Este estudo buscou analisar como ocorreram a articulação vs. cooperação, e a autonomia vs. divisão de poderes entre as entidades na Argentina, explorando assimetrias entre diferentes entidades na implementação de políticas públicas relacionadas a tecnologias de saúde na pandemia, bem como as influências de outros atores. Para tanto, realizou-se uma pesquisa documental para o período de 2020-2021 (relatórios técnicos publicados pela Organização Mundial da Saúde, agências nacionais e sociedades científicas, leis, decisões judiciais, imprensa, pesquisas e entrevistas em profundidade com membros dos Ministérios da Saúde da Argentina). Os processos e os resultados da tomada de decisão nos Ministérios da Saúde foram analisados, traçando a cobertura e orientações de cada tecnologia e o partido político no poder na província. Observou-se uma heterogeneidade nos resultados e processos entre os Ministérios, e disputas em seu interior. Houve uma baixa adesão às orientações oficiais, influenciada por diferentes critérios técnico-políticos (relações de poder, pressão social, midiática, acadêmica, do poder Judiciário e do Legislativo). Em alguns casos, observou-se uma forte tensão entre governo e oposição a partir da discussão das tecnologias. Cada província da Argentina definiu suas políticas sobre tecnologias de saúde para a COVID-19 de forma autônoma, e a tomada de decisões na administração pública foi desordenada, complexa e não linear durante a pandemia.

Protocol implementation during the COVID-19 pandemic: experiences from a randomized trial of stress ulcer prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many intensive care units (ICUs) halted research to focus on COVID-19-specific studies. OBJECTIVE: To describe the conduct of an international randomized trial of stress ulcer prophylaxis (Re-Evaluating the Inhibition of Stress Erosions in the ICU [REVISE]) during the pandemic, addressing enrolment patterns, center engagement, informed consent processes, data collection, a COVID-specific substudy, patient transfers, and data monitoring. METHODS: REVISE is a randomized trial among mechanically ventilated patients, comparing pantoprazole 40 mg IV to placebo on the primary efficacy outcome of clinically important upper gastrointestinal bleeding and the primary safety outcome of 90-day mortality. We documented protocol implementation status from March 11th 2020-August 30th 2022. RESULTS: The Steering Committee did not change the scientific protocol. From the first enrolment on July 9th 2019 to March 10th 2020 (8 months preceding the pandemic), 267 patients were enrolled in 18 centers. From March 11th 2020-August 30th 2022 (30 months thereafter), 41 new centers joined; 59 were participating by August 30th 2022 which enrolled 2961 patients. During a total of 1235 enrolment-months in the pandemic phase, enrolment paused for 106 (8.6%) months in aggregate (median 3 months, interquartile range 2;6). Protocol implementation involved a shift from the a priori consent model pre-pandemic (188, 58.8%) to the consent to continue model (1615, 54.1%, p < 0.01). In one new center, an opt-out model was approved. The informed consent rate increased slightly (80.7% to 85.0%, p = 0.05). Telephone consent encounters increased (16.6% to 68.2%, p < 0.001). Surge capacity necessitated intra-institutional transfers; receiving centers continued protocol implementation whenever possible. We developed a nested COVID-19 substudy. The Methods Centers continued central statistical monitoring of trial metrics. Site monitoring was initially remote, then in-person when restrictions lifted. CONCLUSION: Protocol implementation adaptations during the pandemic included a shift in the consent model, a sustained high consent rate, and launch of a COVID-19 substudy. Recruitment increased as new centers joined, patient transfers were optimized, and monitoring methods were adapted.